Shoot First, Lie Later

DHS just shot another American.

Coming so soon after the shooting of Renee Good, this is one of those moments we’ll look back on as a turning point.

They disarmed a legally armed citizen, and then shot him repeatedly in the back.

Secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem was quick out of the gate with a version of events that was essentially “Who ya gonna believe, me or your lyin’ eyes?” It’s amazing that even when there’s video from three angles directly contradicting what she says, she still believes she can deny it with impunity.

There’s a well-documented psychological reason this works: the primacy effect, closely related to anchoring bias. People tend to latch onto the first version of events they hear and unconsciously judge all later information against that initial frame, even when the original claim is demonstrably false. Once an explanation hardens into an identity-affirming story—this fits my politics, my faction, my fears—corrections don’t replace it; they just bounce off. That’s why officials rush out half-baked or outright false narratives within minutes of an incident: not because they expect everyone to believe them forever, but because they know the first story sets the mental anchor, and everything that follows sounds like an argument instead of the truth.

Here’s a quick recap of the videos currently available, from Ryan Grim and Breaking Points. Watch this first.

Now count Kirsti Noem’s lies in this one:

Noem keeps trying to pivot to the storm which is bearing down on the northern states, but reporters keep pulling her back to the political storm caused by federal agents shooting American citizens with apparent impunity.

The President chimed in on Truth Social (what brazen irony, that!) with his own lies and customary incoherence. He posted a photo of the victim’s pistol.

What is that all about? Well, it’s about the Second Amendment, isn’t it? A citizen with no criminal history, legally armed, and carrying a couple extra magazines. As is clear from the video, he had already been (illegally) disarmed when a federal agent opened fire.

I just would love it if for once people would think for themselves. Don’t believe me, or anyone else. Especially don’t believe Kristi Noem and Donald Trump. Look at the video, and think about it for a second. Not everyone’s going to agree, but I would rather take my chances with people thinking for themselves than with those who obediently parrot partisan talking points.

So far, Minnesotans have demonstrated remarkable restraint. I doubt that will last. There’s no evidence to support Noem’s fabrication that Alex Pretti intended to harm federal agents—quite the contrary. But when public officials such as Noem, Trump and Vice President J. D. Vance spin lies and excuse murder carried out by their agents, they’re setting the stage for a descent into chaos and violence. In a country awash in guns, and seething with anger, it’s inevitable that someone will start picking off those federal agents. For all their weaponry, body armor and camouflage—they’re sitting ducks. And that is exactly what this administration wants.

Minnesota politicians are doing their best to emphasize the difference between local police and Minnesota National Guard. That’s more than just a practical distinction, it highlights a schism that is dividing America.

Those calling for calm are doing the right thing. Underlining the violence of the feds by avoiding violent reprisal oneself is the smart thing to do. It puts more pressure on the administration, and denies them the justification for further escalation. It’s just that any large-enough group, on average, can’t be that smart. Not for very long. Statistically, it’s bound to do something unhelpful sooner or later. And if even a Midwestern mom like Renee Good can be labeled a “domestic terrorist” imagine what they’ll do with someone who actually does pose a lethal threat.

That’s a pretty bleak picture, but we’re better off seeing things as they are than pretending everything is hunky-dory. Aren’t we?